If each team had average special teams, our team would gradually move the start of each drive towards the opposing goal line, eventually scoring a field goal or touchdown and starting the whole cycle over again. (What's VOA? Read here.) Imagine a team where the offense always gained between 15-20 yards and then punted, but the defense was so good that they always limited the other team to 3-and-out. The idea that field position is fluid also explains why some teams that score a high number of points come out much lower on our Value Over Average ratings for offense. Punt 100 times in a season - and when your offense sucks, like Carolina's, you will - and that adds up.
When Carolina sends Todd Sauerbrun out there to punt, they are consistently leaving the opposing team about five yards further back, which means that the average value of the next score is, according to Palmer and Carroll, 0.4 points lower. This is why special teams are so underrated. In fact, if someone asked me, "What is the most important thing you have learned so far that will help people understand why teams win or lose football games," I would answer "Field position is fluid." While the chances of scoring (or allowing a score) change based on a team's position on the field, it doesn't matter how a team gets to that position. This chart is also important to help explain two of the main precepts of the still-young science of football stat analysis.įirst, the idea that field position is fluid. So a turnover is always worth 4 points - well, -4 points to the offense and 4 points to the defense - assuming that you have an average offense and an average defense. Graph the results on the rest of the field, and you end up with a graph that looks like this: The ball on the opposing yard line is worth 6 points, leaving out the extra point which is pretty much guaranteed anyway. They started with the idea that having the ball on your own 0 yard line is worth -2 points, since you've just given up a safety. They only plays they didn't count were those when halftime or the end of the game came before the next score. How did they figure this out? Well, they ran a number of seasons worth of data to determine the answer to this question: "If I'm on yard line X, what will be the next score in the game, on average." It didn't matter whether this score took place on the current drive, or the next drive, or in the next quarter. According to them, a turnover is always worth -4 points. In Hidden Game of Football, Pete Palmer and Bob Carroll propose the theory that this seemingly common sense belief is wrong. Lose the ball closer to the opposing goal line, and you've squandered a chance to score yourself. After all, give the other team the ball closer to your own goal line, and it is easier for them to score. You would expect that a turnover is worth more the closer you are to the goal line. How many points is a turnover worth? If it is returned for a touchdown, clearly the answer is six, right? But what if it isn't returned for a touchdown? And even if it is returned for a touchdown, what about taking into account how many points the offense would have scored if they had not turned the ball over?
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